Weekly Report 1: Syria

Could Turkey's offensive in Syria lead to a quagmire?

 The war in Syria has been ongoing for close to seven years, and many countries have been involved in the quarrel, including, but not limited to, the United States and Russia. Turkey is involved as well, trying to push the Kurdish fighters away from their southern border.  However, seven of the Turkish soldiers involved were killed on Saturday, February 3rd.  After this event, Turkey wishes to create a 30-kilometer buffer zone along their border with Syria, similar to the border between North and South Korea.

The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, warned civilians last month to leave the buffer zone since they're fighting terrorist organizations (Kurdish YPG, PKK) in that area.  Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, says the terrorists have become a serious threat to their borders.  The Turkish air-and-ground campaign started on January 20th and is meant to push the Kurdish fighters away from the border.  France, Iran, and Syria have already condemned the operation, while the United States urges Turkey to show restraint.

Bilal Smabur, Professor of Social Sciences at Yildirim Beyazit University, says that this has been the greatest loss for Turkey since the operation began.  However, this operation is not going to stop, as expressed by the Turkish army; they have stated that as long as the region is controlled/inhabited by the opposition, it's going to continue.

Ahmed Al-Burai, Lecturer at Istanbul Aydin University, explains that Turkey is putting blame on the US-led coalition for replacing on set of terrorists with another.  Washington is not convinced that the YPG is an extension of the PKK, contrary to Turkish beliefs.  Turkey has told the Syrian regime about the operation and was given an ok by Russia and Iran.  Al-Burai says that there has been no attempt as of now to push these forces away from the border.

Vladimir Sotnikov, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, discusses the numerous players in the war.  The Russian forces are monitoring the Turkish involvement in Syria.  Smabur continues saying that Russia wants to put Syria under the Assad regime and is glad to see the conflict between Turkey and NATO; Turkey is distancing themselves from the US, leaving room for Russia to move in.

Al-Burai delves into the US support of the YPG and Kurds and contrasts it with the anti-Kurdish Iran, Russia, and Turkey "coalition."  The Turks don't believe anything from the White House since they have already experienced the lies when it comes to the Kurds.

Some discussion follows about the group Tahrir Al-Sham shooting down a Russian jet in Idlib.  Russia is thought to be the main enemy since they're helping the Assad troops.  Smabur says Turkey is very concerned about this event, claiming that the terrorist organization has grown out of control.  The second issue is that Idlib could become a terrorist haven.  Turkey is facing threats from numerous terrorist organizations.

Peace talks in Sochi and Astana have not had much effect to this point and could undermine the UN Geneva peace talks.  Sotnikov believes that terrorist have been using tactics of "hiding behind the backs of civilians."  Diplomatic efforts in Sochi are an effort of reviving direct contact between the direct opposition leaders/representatives and the government.  Al-Burai believes the Sochi conference was a big scandal: it discussed the constitution of a war-torn country and the opposition did not present. Every party is invested in their own national security, so it is impossible to get a productive negotiation/conclusion as of now.  Sambur agrees the last statement.  More conflict is being produced than peace, so the only hope is a Geneva meeting.


http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2018/02/turkey-offensive-syria-lead-quagmire-180204185302164.html